In the seven days to 21 August 2020, the reported number of new SARS-CoV-2 infections recorded in Switzerland was 1,661, 18% higher than the 1,402 cases recorded the week before. The total number of recorded cases and deaths stood at 39,332 and 1,998 by 21 August 2020.
The 7-day rolling average number of new cases was 237. The last time it was this high was 23 April 2020.
Over the weeks prior to this there were 1,037 and 1,078 new cases in Switzerland, according to worldinfometer.com.
Since the start of June 2020, the canton with the highest per capita infection rate is Geneva, according to corona-data.ch. By 19 August 2020, Geneva had recorded 25.9 infections per 10,000 since the beginning of June 2020. Geneva’s recent infection rate is more than double Vaud’s (12.5 per 10,000), the canton with the next highest rate. The infection overall rate for Switzerland is 9.4 per 10,000, since the beginning of June 2020.
With 1,775 new cases, the canton of Zurich has had the highest number of infections since the beginning of June 2020 but trails on per capita infections (11.7 per 10,000).
It is tempting to take comfort in the low number of Covid-19 deaths in Switzerland recently – there were 7 Covid-19 deaths over the last 7 days. The problem with this is that deaths only really take off when viral spread gets out of control and finds its way into vulnerable segments of the population, something that isn’t happening at the moment.
Probably the biggest concern is the exponential rate at which viruses can spread. If cases were to double every day, one infection would grow to more than 1 million infections after 20 days. Epidemiologists are highly aware of this unintuitive mathematics, which can often make their level of concern feel at odds with public perception.
Another challenge is contact tracing. Cantons have a limited amount of bandwidth when it comes to this time- and resource-intensive process. According to epidemiologist Marcel Tanner from the federal Covid-19 task force, a second wave could occur if the cantons’ contact tracing capacity becomes overloaded. In an interview with watson he said this can happen when the number of new cases is consistently high and geographically concentrated. On the other hand, if new cases are evenly spread across the country and don’t continue to pile up then cantonal contact tracers should be able to cope.
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Ian Bärtschi says
Find the official data here:
https://www.bag.admin.ch/dam/bag/de/dokumente/mt/k-und-i/aktuelle-ausbrueche-pandemien/2019-nCoV/covid-19-lagebericht.pdf.download.pdf/COVID-19_Epidemiologische_Lage_Schweiz.pdf
Le News says
We have used the official data you have referenced. If you take the lab confirmed cases on 21 August 2020 (39,332) and subtract the lab confirmed cases from the same Swiss government report for 14 August 2020 (37,671), you will arrive at the 1,661 new case figure mentioned in this article (39,332 – 37,671 = 1,661). You can also calculate this figure by adding up all the daily new cases from all of the daily official reports for the week (253 + 200 + 128 + 197 + 311 + 266 + 306 = 1,661). All of the information is here: https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/fr/home/krankheiten/ausbrueche-epidemien-pandemien/aktuelle-ausbrueche-epidemien/novel-cov/situation-schweiz-und-international.html
Ian Bärtschi says
The Data is wrong! Total new cases 7 days up to the 21st were according to the BAG 1505.
It’s “just” a difference of 200 infections!
Strop spreading wrong numbers an fear by doing wrong research. If you publish scientic numbers, then also reasearch scientifically!
Le News says
We have used the official data you have referenced. If you take the lab confirmed cases on 21 August 2020 (39,332) and subtract the lab confirmed cases from the same Swiss government report for 14 August 2020 (37,671), you will arrive at the 1,661 new case figure mentioned in this article (39,332 – 37,671 = 1,661). You can also calculate this figure by adding up all the daily new cases from all of the daily official reports for the week (253 + 200 + 128 + 197 + 311 + 266 + 306 = 1,661). It is true that we have included 7 new cases from Liechtenstein out of simplicity. All of the information is here: https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/fr/home/krankheiten/ausbrueche-epidemien-pandemien/aktuelle-ausbrueche-epidemien/novel-cov/situation-schweiz-und-international.html. The same data can be found here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/switzerland/ and here: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html It is not clear how your figure of 1,505 is calculated. If you could share the calculation and demonstrate how it can be reconciled to all of the official data above we will be happy to look at it. We take our work seriously and do not believe in bending the truth to avoid spreading fear. We believe in objectivity and accuracy.
Ian Sargeant says
I don’t see the overall infection rate for Switzerland over the last 7 days. Just the levels mentioned for certain cantons. It would be of great interest to know the total for the country since that is the basis on which Switzerland could become a listed country for quarantine by other countries such as the UK.
Le News says
Since the beginning of June 2020, the infection overall rate for Switzerland is 9.4 per 10,000. Over the last 7 days it is about 1.9 per 10,000.
Ian Bärtschi says
The overalle infection rate is 5.1%. See the official data: https://www.bag.admin.ch/dam/bag/de/dokumente/mt/k-und-i/aktuelle-ausbrueche-pandemien/2019-nCoV/covid-19-lagebericht.pdf.download.pdf/COVID-19_Epidemiologische_Lage_Schweiz.pdf
Le News says
This 5.1% refers to test positivity ie the percentage of tests that were positive. The population infection rate based on official positive test numbers is 231 per million.
John Feenie says
Thank you for this Ian. I am planning to travel to the UK and I dont want to be locked up for 2 weeks. It waas reported yesterday that Scotland was imposing quarantine on Swiss visitors which indicates that a UK imposition may happen soon…hence the need to get accurate numbers…
Ian Sargeant says
And we are hoping to travel, via France, to Villars in October so we’re similarly interested in 7-day infection levels not wanting to be caught out!