A new poll points to a more polarised Switzerland. Support has risen on both flanks—the right is up 2.5 percentage points, the left is up 1 point—while the centre has slipped 3.5 points.
For the first time in the SSR barometer (by Sotomo), the Swiss People’s Party (UDC/SVP) crosses 30% of vote intention. The Socialist Party (SP/PS) sits at 18.8%; The Centre (Le Centre/Die Mitte) at 13.6%; The Liberals (PLR/FDP) at 13.3%; the Greens just over 10%; and the Green Liberals (GLP) at 6.1%.
The winners are clear. The UDC/SVP extends its lead, gaining 2.5 points versus the 2023 federal election. The left inches back—about +0.5 for both SP and Greens. The centre-right bleeds support: GLP −1.5, FDP −1.0, with The Centre and the Evangelical People’s Party down 0.5 apiece. Taken together, a stronger right and a modestly recovering left, set against a sagging middle, spell sharper polarisation.
The UDC/SVP leads in every demographic slice except the highest-educated, where the left commands 40%+. Among those with only compulsory schooling or an apprenticeship, the UDC/SVP draws over a third.
Gender gaps persist: women lean left-green (about a third), men markedly right (roughly 34% UDC/SVP). Age patterns are familiar: the left does better with the young; the UDC/SVP dominates middle cohorts; The Centre fares best among retirees, while the SP posts a respectable score with seniors. Income tilts centre-right: over half of earners above CHF 8,000 back centre-right parties; the FDP’s share rises with income, while the UDC/SVP hovers around 30% across brackets.
What it portends for 2027: if trends hold, the UDC/SVP could surpass its 2015 record (29.4%). The SP looks secure in second. The tussle for third between FDP and The Centre may decide claims to a second Federal Council seat. A Green rebound above 10% would revive its own government ambitions and put pressure Switzerland’s venerable magic formula, a convention that determines which parties get Federal Council seats.
Public sentiment towards government is fragile: about half say they do not trust the Federal Council, and fewer than 30% judge its political course appropriate—down from 45% in 2021.
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