Switzerland’s primary schools are expected to see a steep decline in pupil numbers over the coming decade, according to projections from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).
The number of primary pupils will begin to fall from 2027, dropping by about 7% between 2025 and 2034. The decline reflects a sharp fall in births since 2022.
The trend will affect all cantons and, in turn, the demand for teachers. The FSO expects the number of primary-school teachers to shrink by roughly 4,500 over ten years — a 6% decline.
Fewer teachers needed
Recruitment needs are already easing. Swiss schools hired about 6,000 new teachers in 2022 and 2023, but that figure is projected to fall to around 5,000 this year and just 3,000 by 2034 — a 40% drop over the period. By 2032, the supply of newly qualified teachers is expected to meet demand in nearly all regions. Only north-western Switzerland may still face a shortfall, with about 10% fewer teaching graduates than needed.
Forecasts with caveats
The FSO cautions that such forecasts should be interpreted carefully. Teacher demand depends on several uncertain factors, including retirement timing, part-time work, parental leave and career breaks. Structural reforms, policy shifts or changes in professional behaviour could also alter the outlook. The future path of birth rates, meanwhile, remains anyone’s guess.
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