After six consecutive cuts, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has left its key rate unchanged at 0%. It also reaffirmed its willingness to intervene in foreign-exchange markets if needed. Inflationary pressures, it noted, remain broadly stable.
The bank will keep a close eye on the data and adjust policy as required to safeguard price stability. Few were surprised: most economists had anticipated the pause.
The economic outlook, however, is murkier. America’s steeper tariffs have cast a shadow, with trade policy and slowing global growth cited as the main risks. The SNB still expects Swiss GDP to expand by 1–1.5% in 2025, but has trimmed its forecast for 2026 to just under 1%. That compares with the SNB’s June projection of 1–1.5%—made before Donald Trump’s 39% tariff hammer. Unemployment, the SNB warns, is likely to rise.
Exports and investment are set to suffer, particularly in mechanical engineering and watchmaking. Services have so far been spared. US tariffs pose a major challenge for affected firms and are likely to dampen economic activity, according to the SNB. For now, monetary policy remains loose in support of growth.
The pause follows a string of cuts: 25 basis points in March, June and September 2024, 50 in December, and another two rounds of 25 in March and June this year. That easing, Mr Schlegel argued, has prevented inflation from falling further. Infaltion has in fact ticked up—from -0.1% in May to 0.2% in August—and may rise modestly in coming quarters.
Even so, inflation remains within the bank’s target range of 0–2%. It is projected at 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026 and 0.7% in 2027—forecasts unchanged since June.
Inflation appears to be ticking up in other parts of the world. US inflation crept up to 2.9% at the end of August 2025, from 2.7% in July. And, in the UK, although the rate (CPI) held steady at 3.8% in August 2025, it is up significantly from 2.2% in August 2024.
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