Switzerland’s unemployment rate held steady at 2.7% in July 2025, unchanged from the previous month, according to data published this week by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO).
Adjusted for seasonal variation, the figure remained flat at 2.9%. SECO’s Directorate of Labour, noted that current joblessness is broadly in line with the Swiss labour market’s long-term average.
Yet the stability masks deeper undercurrents. The number of people registered as unemployed rose by 1.8% compared with June, to 129,154. The year-on-year increase is more striking: unemployment in July was nearly 20% higher than a year earlier.
Export-oriented sectors have begun to feel the chill. Since April, President Donald Trump’s threats of steep tariffs have introduced uncertainty that is rippling through the economy. Manufacturing, particularly the watchmaking industry, has shown early signs of strain. Service providers closely tied to business sentiment—such as recruitment firms and hospitality companies—have also seen a rise in joblessness.
Short-time work, a labour market policy tool that allows companies to temporarily reduce employees’ working hours instead of laying them off, a longstanding tool in Swiss economic policy, remains underused—so far. In July, firms submitted compensation requests covering 25,000 positions, well below the 37,000 peak recorded in March. Only about half of such applications are typically enacted.
For now, companies are treading cautiously. Many are delaying investment and hiring. Those with multinational footprints may opt to shift production destined for the U.S. to factories abroad, preserving Swiss output for other markets.
SECO expects unemployment to rise further. In June, its economists forecast an average rate of 2.9% for 2025. In a scenario where U.S. tariffs remain high, joblessness could reach 3.5% in 2026. A more moderate tariff regime might limit the rise to 3.2%.
Large differences by nationality persist. The rate among Swiss (1.9%) is far lower than among foreign nationals (4.7%). The highest rates of unemployment by nationality are among migrants from Turkey (6.6%), Bulgaria (7.3%) and Ukraine (24.0%).
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