If next week’s vote had taken place on 19 January 2019 it would have failed suggests a poll run by Swiss broadcaster SSR.
A similar poll in December 2018 show a majority in favour of the plan.
The latest poll shows that only 47% are certain or fairly certain to vote in favour while around 49% say they are certain or fairly certain to vote no.
While the percentage definitely against (37%) and fairly against (12%) is only slightly ahead of those definitely for (31%) and fairly for (16%) – the remaining 4% were undecided – the poll reveals a significant shift from December 2018.
In December only 15% were dead against and 14% fairly against the initiative. By 19 January 2019 another 20% had shifted into this camp
The Swiss initiative calls for an end to the re-zoning of land for construction. Building permits will only be issued if another piece of land with the same agricultural potential is re-zoned from construction to agriculture.
The main arguments for the initiative are that further construction disfigures the landscape and reduces farmland.
The main arguments against the plan are that laws voted in in 2013 already constrain construction sufficiently and that stricter limits will push rents higher.
Voters from the Swiss People’s Party (UDC/SVP), which has widespread support among farmers, are 55% against the plan. At the other end were the Liberal Greens, who were 51% in favour, Greens, who were 75% in favour, and Socialists, who were 67% in favour.
All of the other main parties including PBD/BDP (75%), PDC/CVP (64%) and PLR/FDP (72%) polled majorities against.
4,669 eligible voters were questioned. The median date of the polling was 19 January 2019.