Tribune de Genève.
After more than two years of a highly overvalued franc, relative to the euro, the currency should ease in the near term reckons Thomas Flury, senior currency strategist at UBS. He expects a euro to be worth 1.14 francs in 6 months and 1.16 within a year.
Emmanuel Macron’s victory and Marine Le Pen’s defeat in the second round of France’s presidential election support this trend. However these are not the only forces at work. A number of experts and indicators point to economic recovery in the eurozone. In addition, specialists at UBS expect the European Central Bank to reduce its programme of quantitative easing from September.
The exchange rate, which was around 1.07 in mid April has already moved to nearly 1.10. On 18 May 2017, it was trading at around 1.09, according to Bloomberg.
If these predictions turn into reality it will be good news for Swiss exporters and bad news for Swiss importers, travellers and cross-border workers.